Potential distribution of medium-sized felines in Morelos: cilmate suitability and coverage in protected natural areas

Abstract

The presence of the six species of felids distributed throughout Mexico has been documented in the state of Morelos. These species face serious threats from habitat loss and fragmentation driven by human activities. Some, particularly medium-sized felines, such as margay, jaguarundi, ocelot, and bobcat, remain poorly studied. Our objective was to identify their potential distribution areas within Morelos, assess the impact of human activities on these areas, and evaluate the role of Protected Natural Areas (PNAs) in conserving their potential habitats. We used the Maximum Entropy algorithm to model the ecological niches of the four species and generate potential distribution maps using bioclimatic variables from WorldClim. We estimated the potential distribution areas for each species and identified zones suitable for the coexistence of all four felines. These models were superimposed on digital maps of human settlements, agricultural fields, and bare soil to quantify anthropogenic impacts and to assess the effectiveness of PNAs in protecting these habitats. Our results indicate that human activities reduce the potential distribution areas of the four species by an average 42%, and only 880.56 km2 (18%) of the area with primary or secondary vegetation is protected by any PNAs. Although we identified areas with high climate suitability for these species, no research has yet confirmed their presence. We therefore propose targeted monitoring of these areas to gather critical data that can inform conservation strategies for medium-sized felines and their habitats in Morelos.