Potential distribution of medium-sized felines in Morelos: suitable areas and coverage in protected natural areas

Abstract

The presence of all six felids species distributed throughout Mexico has been documented in the state of Morelos. These species face serious threats from habitat loss and fragmentation driven by human activities. Some, particularly medium-sized felines such as the tigrillo, jaguarundi, ocelot, and bobcat, remain poorly studied. Accordingly, our objective was to identify their potential distribution areas within Morelos, assess the impact of human activities on these areas, and evaluate the role of Protected Natural Areas (PNAs) in conserving their potential habitats. We employed the Maximum Entropy algorithm to model the ecological niches of the four species and generate potential distribution maps using bioclimatic variables from WorldClim. We estimated the potential distribution areas for each species and identified zones suitable for the coexistence of all four felines. These models were overlaid with digital maps of human settlements to quantify anthropogenic impacts and to assess the effectiveness of PNAs in protecting these habitats. Our results indicate that human activities have reduced the potential distribution areas of the four species by 80%. Of the remaining 20%, less than half falls within a PNA. Although we identified areas with high climatic suitability for these species, there is currently no research confirming their presence. We therefore propose targeted monitoring of these areas to gather critical data that can inform conservation strategies for medium-sized felines and their habitats in Morelos.